The Climate Crisis and Breastfeeding: Opportunities for Resilience.

The climate crisis is an emerging global challenge that poses potential risks to breastfeeding practices and outcomes. There are multifaceted effects of climate change affecting the breastfeeding dyad across environmental, societal, and human health dimensions. Breastfeeding support in the face of climate change will require solutions at the structural level-healthcare, community, and workplace settings-and at the mother-infant dyad level. Breastfeeding can additionally be an adaptive response to crisis situations and can mitigate some of the environmental challenges associated with climate change. Despite the undeniable significance of climate change on breastfeeding (and vice versa), our perspective as experts in the field is that this topic has not been systematically addressed. Although we highlight some of the challenges, potential solutions, and co-benefits of breastfeeding in the context of climate change, there are numerous issues that could be further explored and necessitate additional preparedness planning.

Designing a Surveillance System to Monitor the Adverse Health Effect of Environmental Disasters: A Case Study of Drying Lake Urmia-Iran.

Background: Through designing a surveillance system, steps to policy making and designing measures needed to reduce the potential risks of environmental disasters on human health could be taken. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model for Environmental Disasters Diseases Surveillance System (EDDS) to monitor Adverse Health Effects (AHEs) of Environmental Disasters (AHEEDs). Methods: As the first step, the literature review was conducted to identify the AHEEDs. Then, using the results of the first step and analyzing the existing documents, the AHEEDs were identified, and, based on the experts' opinions, high-priority effects were included in the EDDS. Then, using semi-structured interviews, 20 experts' views on the appropriate model of EDDS were investigated. To design the initial model, a panel of experts was formed with six participants. Finally, the Delphi technique was used for expert opinion and model finalization. Results: As a result of the literature review and document analysis, 41 hazards/diseases were identified. Finally, ten diseases were suggested to enter the EDDS. In the experts' view, it is better that communicable diseases be reported actively and urgently and Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) actively and non-urgently. From the participants' point of view, the most significant achievements of the EDDS can be organizational and managerial, health promotion, and economic achievements. Conclusion: Developing a dedicated EDDS for AHEEDs can be very helpful for better management of these effects. To this end, the model proposed in this study can serve as a guide for national and local policymakers to implement surveillance systems for AHEEDs.

Climate Change, Environmental Disasters, and Health Inequities: The Underlying Role of Structural Inequalities.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review and analyze recent literature in public health, urban planning, and disaster management to better understand the relationships between climate change, natural disasters, and root causes of health disparities in the USA. RECENT FINDINGS: Existing scholarship establishes clear linkages between climate change and increasing occurrences and severity of natural disasters across the USA. The frequency and types of disasters vary by region and impact both short and long-term health outcomes. Current research highlights health inequities affecting lower income and minoritized communities disproportionately, but data-driven studies critically examining the role of structural inequalities in climate-induced health disparities are sparse. Adding to the body of knowledge, our conceptual framework maps how long-standing structural inequalities in policy, practice, and funding shape vulnerability of lower-income, racially and ethnically marginalized individuals. Vulnerability follows three common pathways: disparities in "exposure", "sensitivity", and "resiliency" before, during, and after a climate disaster. We recommend that future research, policy, and practice shift towards solutions that unearth and address the structural biases that cause environmental disaster and health inequities.

An exploration of the trajectory of psychological distress associated with exposure to smoke during the 2014 Hazelwood coal mine fire.

Due to climate change, catastrophic events such as landscape fires are increasing in frequency and severity. However, relatively little is known about the longer-term mental health outcomes of such events. Follow-up was conducted of 709 adults exposed to smoke from the 2014 Hazelwood mine fire in Morwell, Victoria, Australia. Participants completed two surveys evaluating posttraumatic distress, measured using the Impact of Events Scale-Revised (IES-R), three and six years after the mine fire. Mixed-effects regression models were used to evaluate longitudinal changes in distress. IES-R total scores increased on average by 2.6 points (95%CI: 1.2 to 3.9 points) between the two survey rounds, with increases across all three posttraumatic distress symptom clusters, particularly intrusive symptoms. This increase in distress was evident across all levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure to the mine fire smoke. Age was an effect modifier between mine fire PM2.5 exposure and posttraumatic distress, with younger adults impacted more by exposure to the mine fire. Greater exposure to PM2.5 from the mine fire was still associated with increased psychological distress some six years later, with the overall level of distress increasing between the two survey rounds. The follow-up survey coincided with the Black Summer bushfire season in south-eastern Australia and exposure to this new smoke event may have triggered distress sensitivities stemming from exposure to the earlier mine fire. Public health responses to disaster events should take into consideration prior exposures and vulnerable groups, particularly younger adults.

Contemporary Perspectives on Environmental Enforcement.

Green criminology allows for the study of environmental and criminal laws, environmental criminality which includes widespread environmental harm, and the abuse and exploitation of nonhuman animals. Yet many environmental crimes are not the core focus of criminal justice systems or public concern about crime and safety despite having the potential to cause far wider social harm and a large number of deaths. Instead much environmental enforcement is regulatory or administrative in nature, particularly in respect of corporate environmental wrongdoing, which is often categorized as accidental wrongdoing, largely considered to be the fault of "rogue" employees or the unintended consequences of governance failures. Unlike traditional street and property crimes, environmental crimes (and environmental harms) frequently have long-lasting and irreversible effects. This raises questions about the effectiveness of justice systems in dealing with environmental offenders and the damage they cause. This paper explores the effectiveness of contemporary environmental enforcement mechanisms. In particular, the paper explores the extent to which they such mechanism are equipped to deal with corporate environmental offending which in many cases is a consequence of the operation of neoliberal markets. This paper examines whether the drive for profits and anthropocentric attitudes toward the environment and exploitation of natural resources create a situation where corporate environmental crime is a foreseeable and even natural/inevitable consequence. Where that is the case and where corporations have the resources to continue paying fines and the expertise to navigate regulatory justice systems, an alternative to the law enforcement "detection apprehension and punishment" approach might be required.

Protocol of the Longitudinal Study on Child Health in Brumadinho (MG): "Bruminha Project" / Protocolo do estudo longitudinal de saúde infantil em Brumadinho (MG): Projeto Bruminha

ABSTRACT: Objective: To present the research protocol and to describe the preliminary results of the Bruminha Project. Methods: This project is part of the set of health actions proposed under the Brumadinho Health Project. It is a prospective cohort study with periodic follow-ups for four years. The eligible population was all children aged 0 to 6 years living in four rural communities of the affected municipality. Sociodemographic and health data were collected, as well as urinary samples, for assessment of exposure to metals. Results: In the first year of study, we evaluated 62% (217) of the eligible population and collected 172 (79%) valid urine samples. At least one metal was detected in all samples, and in 50.6% (n=87) or them, the metal concentration was higher than the reference value. In 38% (n=82) of the children, neuropsychomotor development was considered at risk. Report of respiratory allergy was four times (4.27) more frequent and of bronchitis 62% higher (1.62) in children living in locations exposed to dust from ore residues, compared to those living more than 10 km away from the site of the dam disaster. Conclusion: The study protocol was proven adequate to evaluate the proposed outcomes. The strategy used for population selection required adjustments regarding the long-term community awareness process, with new participants in the upcoming follow-ups (2022 and 2023).

RESUMO: Objetivo: Apresentar o protocolo da pesquisa e descrever os resultados preliminares da linha de base da população de estudo do Projeto Bruminha. Métodos: Este projeto é parte do conjunto de ações propostas no âmbito do Programa de Ações Saúde Brumadinho. Trata-se de um estudo de coorte prospectiva, com seguimento periódico por quatro anos, cuja população elegível foi constituída de todas as crianças de 0 a 6 anos de idade residentes em quatro localidades situadas na zona rural do município afetado, com coleta de dados sociodemográficos e de saúde e de amostras urinárias para avaliação da exposição a metais. Resultados: No primeiro ano de estudo foi avaliada 62% (217) da população elegível e se coletaram 172 (79%) amostras de urina válidas. Em todas as amostras analisadas foi detectado pelo menos um metal, e em 50,6% (n=87) concentrações urinárias acima do valor de referência. Em 38% (n=82) das crianças a avaliação do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor foi considerada de risco. O relato de alergia respiratória foi quatro vezes (4,27) mais frequente e de bronquite 61% maior (1,62) nas crianças residentes nas localidades expostas à poeira de resíduos de minério, proporcionalmente àquelas residentes a mais de 10 km do local do desastre. Conclusão: O protocolo do estudo mostrou-se adequado para avaliação dos desfechos propostos. A estratégia de captação da população de estudo necessitou de reajustes quanto ao processo de sensibilização da comunidade a longo prazo com entrada de novos participantes nos próximos seguimentos (2022 e 2023).

Vigilancia intensificada de enfermedades durante los incendios forestales, Paraguay, 2019

RESUMEN El humo de los incendios forestales puede influir en la mortalidad, las emergencias y las visitas ambulatorias, especialmente en personas con problemas respiratorios y cardiovasculares. La vigilancia intensificada exige sumar recursos adicionales a las actividades rutinarias de vigilancia. En agosto del 2019, se registraron 25.299 focos de incendios en varios departamentos del Paraguay. Se describen los hallazgos de la vigilancia intensificada de enfermedades en la población afectada por incendios forestales en Paraguay en el 2019. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo trasversal entre el 15/08/19 al 4/10/2019 en todo el territorio nacional. Como fuente de datos, se incluyen reportes de las Unidades Epidemiológicas Regionales, organizados en una base de datos con las variables: departamento, distrito, población indígena, número de atenciones médicas, motivo de consulta, heridos graves, desaparecidos y fallecidos, identificación de riesgos potenciales para la salud. Fueron afectados 12 (12/17) departamentos y la Capital del país, 30 distritos y 12 comunidades indígenas. Se realizaron 1.681 atenciones médicas, de los cuales 1.291 (77%) eran de Alto Paraguay. Las enfermedades más frecuentes fueron Infecciones Respiratorias Agudas no neumonías (36%), y Enfermedades Tipo Influenza (18%). No se registraron heridos graves, personas desaparecidas ni fallecidas. Como riesgos potenciales para la salud: pérdidas de viviendas en comunidades indígenas, cultivos, ganados y la interrupción de provisión de agua. En conclusión, los cuadros respiratorios fueron más frecuentes durante los incendios forestales, no se registraron personas desaparecidas ni fallecidas. Se identificaron riesgos potenciales para la salud por afectación de medios de vida y sustento, sobre todo en poblaciones indígenas.

ABSTRACT Smoke from wildfires can influence mortality, emergencies and outpatient visits, especially in people with respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Intensified surveillance requires adding up additional resources to routine surveillance activities. In August 2019, 25,299 fire outbreaks were registered in de various departments Paraguay. The findings of the intensified surveillance of diseases in the population affected by wildfires in Paraguay in 2019 are described. A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out between 08/15/19 to 10/4/2019 throughout the national territory. As a data source, reports from the Regional Epidemiological Units, organized in a database with the variables: department, district, indigenous populations, number of medical care, reason for consultation, seriously injured, missing and deceased people, identification of potential health risks. Twelve (12/17) departments and the capital of the country, 30 districts and 12 indigenous peoples were affected. One thousand six hundred and eighty-one medical services were performed, of which 1,291 (77%) were from Alto Paraguay. The most frequent diseases were non-pneumonia Acute Respiratory Infections (36%), and Influenza-like illness (18%). There were no injured, missing or dead people. Among the potential health risks: loss of dwellings in indigenous people, crops, livestock and the interruption of water supply. In conclusion, respiratory symptoms were the most frequent during the wildfires, there were no injured, missing or dead people. Potential health risks were identified due to the impact on livelihoods, especially in indigenous populations.

Desastre ambiental, atores sociais, políticas públicas e espaços passíveis de participação / Environmental disaster, social actors, public policies and participating spaces / Desastres ambientales, actores sociales, políticas públicas y espacios participantes / Catastrophe environnementale, acteurs sociaux, politiques publiques et espaces participants

O objeto da investigação é o rompimento da barragem da Samarco, que carregou rejeitos pelo Rio Doce até a foz em Regência/Espírito Santo e, por consequência, trouxe à luz um cenário de articulações e obras em torno da água em seus múltiplos usos. Representantes do governo federal e dos estados afetados articularam-se para tratar de ações para reparar danos do desastre mediante a confecção do TTAC e um arranjo institucional, quando surge a Fundação Renova. Para isso, como metodologia, se utiliza dos relatórios mensais da Fundação Renova e de notícias do site institucional da Prefeitura de Colatina, inclusive observando possibilidades e desafios na experiência de participação social. Os resultados da abordagem do desastre percorrem os âmbitos econômico, político, socioambiental e cultural. As decisões tomadas em torno da água resultam num arranjo institucional, na interação de interesses, na organização de relações de poder e de atores sociais na escolha e uso de certos instrumentos de tensionamento.

The object of the investigation is the rupture of the Samarco dam, which carried tailings along the Doce River to the mouth in Regência / Espírito Santo and, consequently, brought to light a scenario of articulations and works around the water in its multiple uses. Representatives of the federal government and affected states came together to address actions to repair disaster damage through the making of the TTAC and an institutional arrangement, when the Renova Foundation appears. For this, as a methodology, it uses the monthly reports of the Renova Foundation and news from the institutional website of Colatina City Hall, including observing possibilities and challenges in the experience of social participation. The results of the disaster approach span economic, political, socio-environmental and cultural spheres. Decisions made around water result in institutional arrangement, interaction of interests, organization of power relations and social actors in the choice and use of certain tensioning instruments.

El objeto de la investigación es la ruptura de la presa Samarco, que llevó los relaves a lo largo del río Doce hasta la desembocadura en Regência / Espírito Santo y, en consecuencia, sacó a la luz un escenario de articulaciones y obras alrededor del agua en sus múltiples usos. Representantes del gobierno federal y los estados afectados se unieron para abordar acciones para reparar daños por desastre mediante la creación del TTAC y un acuerdo institucional, cuando aparece la Fundación Renova. Para esto, como metodología, utiliza los informes mensuales de la Fundación Renova y las noticias del sitio web institucional del Ayuntamiento de Colatina, incluida la observación de las posibilidades y desafíos en la experiencia de participación social. Los resultados del enfoque de desastre abarcan las esferas económicas, política, socioambiental y cultural. Las decisiones tomadas en torno al agua resultan en arreglos institucionales, interacción de intereses, organización de relaciones de poder y actores sociales en la elección y uso de ciertos instrumentos tensores.

L'objet de l'enquête est la rupture du barrage de Samarco, qui a entraîné des résidus le long de la rivière Doce jusqu'à l'embouchure de Regência / Espírito Santo et, par conséquent, a mis en évidence un scénario d'articulations et de travaux autour de l'eau aux multiples utilisations. Des représentants du gouvernement fédéral et des États touchés se sont réunis pour examiner les mesures à prendre pour réparer les dégâts causés par une catastrophe grâce à la création du TTAC et à un arrangement institutionnel, lors de la fondation de la Fondation Renova. Pour ce faire, il utilise comme méthodologie les rapports mensuels de la Fondation Renova et les nouvelles du site Web institutionnel de la mairie de Colatina, notamment en observant les possibilités et les difficultés de l'expérience de la participation sociale. Les résultats de cette approche englobent les sphères économique, politique, socio-environnementale et culturelle. Les décisions prises autour de l'eau résultent en un arrangement institutionnel, une interaction des intérêts, une organisation des relations de pouvoir et des acteurs sociaux dans le choix et l'utilisation de certains instruments de tension.

Posttraumatic Stress and Depression in the Aftermath of Environmental Disasters: A Review of Quantitative Studies Published in 2018.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: As interest in the mental health consequences of environmental disasters increases, this review aimed to summarize peer-reviewed studies published in 2018 on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression symptoms after such events. RECENT FINDINGS: Notable trends in the past year of research included studies focusing on vulnerable populations (e.g., persons with preexisting physical health conditions), assessing the cumulative impact of exposure to multiple disasters, exploring pathway leading to PTSD and depression symptoms, and evaluating the effectiveness of post-disaster interventions. Over 100 articles were identified, focused on 40 disasters that occurred between 1982 and 2017. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0 to 70.51% for PTSD and 1.9 to 59.5% for depression. Consistent predictors of adverse outcomes included female gender, socioeconomic disadvantage, high disaster exposure, and low psychosocial resources. Further research that expands upon recent advances in the literature is critical given the large proportion of the world's population exposed to disasters and the increasing incidence of such events.

Migration and Mental Health in the Aftermath of Disaster: Evidence from Mt. Merapi, Indonesia.

Migration is a standard survival strategy in the context of disasters. While prior studies have examined factors associated with return migration following disasters, an area that remains relatively underexplored is whether moving home to one's original community results in improved health and well-being compared to other options such as deciding to move on. In the present study, our objective is to explore whether return migration, compared to other migration options, results in superior improvements to mental health. We draw upon data from a cross-sectional pilot study conducted 16 months after a series of volcanic eruptions in Merapi, Indonesia. Using ordinal logistic regression, we find that compared to respondents who were still displaced (reference category), respondents who had "moved home" were proportionally more likely to report good mental health (proportional odds ratios (POR) = 2.02 [95% CI = 1.05, 3.91]) compared to average or poor mental health. Likewise, respondents who had "moved on" were proportionally more likely to report good mental health (POR = 2.64 [95% CI = 0.96, 7.77]. The results suggest that while moving home was an improvement from being displaced, it may have been better to move on, as this yielded superior associations with self-reported mental health.

Space-time variability of the Roncador river basin in the change of land use and cover and its correlation with climatic variables / Variabilidade espaço-temporal da bacia hidrográfica do rio roncador na mudança do uso e cobertura do solo e sua correlação com variáveis climáticas

The objective of this study was to evaluate the space-time dynamics of the soil use and occupation of the Rio Roncador river basin between 1985 and 2010. The scenes were classified by two methods (partially unsupervised - K-Means and supervised - Maximum likelihood), the Thematic Mapper sensor products on the LANDSAT 5 orbital platform were used for both images of a 25-year time series (1985 to 2000). In order to measure the accuracy of the field the computer application Google Earth was used, in which nine classes (urban area, agricultural area, pasture, exposed soil, native forest, secondary vegetation, mangrove, altitude field and water) were collected. A multiple linear regression was performed, correlating the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - mean NDVI (dependent variable) with the independent climatic variables (global solar radiation - MJm-2day-1, average air temperature - °C, relative humidity -%, evapotranspiration - mm d-1, and rain - mm). According to the general classification by Kappa parameter of the images for 2005 and 2010, they were identified as very good (68% and 74%). These results confirm that the Roncador River Basin is undergoing transformation in its landscape, with an average reduction of -49% in native vegetation areas due to the increase in urban areas (25%) and agriculture (31%). The statistical analysis showed that rainfall and air temperature were the only variables that presented significant sigma (0.04) and (0.02). The obtained coefficient of determination indicated that 47% of the variations of the "vegetation index" are explained by the environmental variables.

O objetivo deste estudo foi de analisar espaço-temporalmente a dinâmica do uso e ocupação do solo da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Roncador, localizada no município de Magé no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, entre os anos de 1985 a 2010. As cenas foram classificadas por dois métodos (parcialmente nãosupervisionada ­ K-Means e supervisionada ­ Máxima Verossimilhança), para ambos foram utilizados os produtos abordo da plataforma orbital LANDSAT 5 do sensor Thematic Mapper, para as imagens de uma sérietemporal de 25 anos (1985 a 2000). Para a aferição como verdade de campo utilizou-se se o aplicativo computacional Google Earth, no qual foram coletadas nove classes (área urbana, área agrícola, pastagem, solo exposto, floresta nativa, vegetação secundária, manguezal, campo de altitude e água). Foi feita uma regressão linear múltipla, correlacionando o Índice de Vegetação da Diferença Normalizada - NDVI médio (variável dependente) com as variáveis climáticas independentes (radiação solar global - MJm-2dia-1, temperatura média do ar - °C, umidade relativa do ar - %, evapotranspiração ­ mm d-1, e chuva - mm). Segundo a classificação geral pelo parâmetro Kappa das imagens para os anos de 2005 e 2010 estas foram identificadas como muito bom (68% e 74%). Estes resultados comprovam que a Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Roncador está passando por transformação em sua paisagem, com redução média de (-49%) das áreas de vegetação nativa por aumento de áreas como urbana (25%) e agricultura (31%). A análise estatística evidenciou que a variável climática chuva e temperatura do ar foram às únicas que apresentaram sigma significativo (0.04) e (0.02), a regressão múltipla com R2 de 0.47, que significa que 47% das variações do "índice de vegetação" são explicados pelas variáveis ambientais.

A responsabilidade do Estado na perspectiva da legislação da Defesa Civil e de lideranças comunitárias / The responsibility of the State from the perspective of Civil Defense legislation and community leaders / La responsabilidade del Estado en vista de la legislación de la Defensa Civil y de los liderazgos comunitarios

Esta pesquisa buscou compreender a responsabilidade do Estado na gestão de risco de desastres sob a perspectiva de lideranças comunitárias do M'Boi Mirim. Tendo em vista que a região conta com 50 das 407 áreas de risco do município de São Paulo, estando entre os piores índices de exclusão e vulnerabilidade da cidade, e que compete às prefeituras gerenciar áreas de risco, verifica-se a importância de compreender a responsabilidade do Estado neste contexto. Foram analisadas entrevistas de três lideranças comunitárias da região. Desta análise emergiram diversos elementos que contribuem para a situação da região: a inércia do poder público, as dificuldades de diálogo entre população e autoridades governamentais e a diversidade de atores que interferem na solução das questões encontradas, como secretarias municipais que não conversam entre si, políticos que atuam de acordo com seus próprios interesses e a onipresença do tráfico. Verificou-se, ainda, que as lideranças tinham uma perspectiva crítica tanto com relação às ações ou inércia do governo como também com relação à responsabilidade da população.

The aim of this research was to understand the State's responsibility in the disaster risk management in the M'Boi Mirim regions from the perspective of the community leaders. The relevance of the focus on governmental responsibility stems from three issues: that 50 of the 407 areas of risk in the São Paulo municipality are located in this region; that it has one of the worst indicators of vulnerability in the city and that it is a duty of the municipal government to manage areas of risk. Interviews were carried out with three community leaders. Results indicate that various factors contribute to the disaster risk in the region: governmental inertia; the difficult dialogue between population and government authorities and the diversity of actors that interfere in the solution of the problem, such as lack of communication between municipal departments, politicians that act on behalf of their own interests and the omnipresence of drug trafficking. Results also indicate that community leaders have a critical view regarding governmental actions as well as the responsibility of the population.

Esta investigación buscó comprender la responsabilidad del Estado en la gestión del riesgo de desastres desde la perspectiva de líderes comunitarios del barrio M'Boi Mirim. La región cuenta con 50 de las 407 zonas de riesgo del municipio de San Pablo, tiene uno de los peores índices de exclusión y vulnerabilidad de la ciudad, y dado que compete a las alcaldías gestionar estas áreas de riesgo, se ve la importancia de comprender la responsabilidad del estado en este contexto. Se analizaron las entrevistas de tres líderes comunitarios de la región. De este análisis surgieron diversos elementos que contribuyeron para la situación de la región: la inercia del poder público, las dificultades de diálogo entre la población y las autoridades gubernamentales, y la diversidad de agentes que interfieren en la solución de las cuestiones encontradas, por ejemplo, secretarias municipales que no se comunican entre sí, políticos que actúan de acuerdo a sus propios intereses y la omnipresencia del tráfico. De la misma manera, se observó que los lideres tienen una perspectiva critica con relación a las acciones o inercia, así como también con relación a la responsabilidad de la población.

Examining the effect of reoccurring disturbances on population persistence with application to marine mammals.

We develop a two-state Markov chain to describe the effect of reoccurring disturbances on a population that is modeled by discrete-time matrix model. The environment is described by three parameters that define the magnitude of impact of a disturbance, the average duration of impact of a disturbance, and the average time between disturbances. We derive an approximation for the stochastic growth rate in order to examine how these three parameters affect population growth. From this approximation, we calculate the sensitivity and elasticity of the growth rate with respect to the environmental parameters. We show that the average duration of impact of a disturbance and the average time between disturbances contribute equally to the stochastic growth rate. We also show that the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate is more sensitive to changes in the magnitude of impact than to changes in either the average duration of impact of a disturbance or the average time between disturbances. These conclusions hold irrespective of the population under consideration. We then provide an application of the model formulation to examine how disturbances, such as oil spills, may affect a sperm whale population. The model results suggest that, in oder to mitigate the impact of disturbances, management strategies should focus on reducing the magnitude of impact. Meanwhile, if it is more feasible to reduce either the duration of impact or the time between impacts, managers should focus on whichever is easier to obtain. In addition, when applied to a sperm whale population, our model shows that the probability of extinction can dramatically increase when disturbance frequency increases but is not greatly impacted by the assumption that all disturbances have the same magnitude.

Determining vegetation dynamics through the enhanced vegetation index and meteorological variables for the ribeirão Cachimbal basin, Rio de Janeiro-Brazil / Dinâmica da vegetação através do enhanced vegetation index e variáveis meteorológicas para a bacia do ribeirão Cachimbal, Rio de Janeiro-Brasil

The objective of this study was to analyze a spatiotemporal study of the vegetation dynamics of the hydrographic basin of the Ribeirão Cachimbal in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer imagery acquired by the TERRA satellite. A total of 23 images were used for each year of El Niño (2005 and 2015), 250-m-resolution images from collection 006 of the 16-day Enhanced Vegetation Index (MOD13Q1) product were used. Daily rainfall and temperature data were obtained from a conventional meteorological station at Resende (Rio de Janeiro State), which were made available by the National Institute for Meteorology of Brazil. Simple linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the dependence of the temporal series of vegetation as a function of the daily series of rainfall and temperature in terms of the significance of their correlation coefficients. Multivariate analysis of the main components was also undertaken. The results of the simple linear regression between the vegetation index and meteorological variables (temperature and rainfall) were significant in the respective years (p-value < 5%), except for rainfall in 2015, which presented a value of 0.06 (p-value < 25%). Observing the trend, both years (2005 and 2015 showed an increase in vegetation in the study area (Z = 0.37 and 0.24, respectively). By quantifying the values of the respective vegetation classes, it was possible to verify that a reduction of 40% had occurred in areas with dense vegetation coverage by 2015. The vegetation dynamics of the Ribeirão Cachimbal basin are influenced by rainfall and temperature variables and they have greatest correlation in spring and summer.

O objetivo deste estudo foi de analisar espaço-temporalmente a dinâmica da vegetação da bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão Cachimbal, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Foram utilizadas um total de 23 imagens para cada ano de El Niño (2005 e 2015) do sensor Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer a bordo do satélite TERRA, da coleção 006 com resolução espacial de 250 metros do produto de 16 em 16 dias Enhanced Vegetation Index (MOD13Q1). Os dados de chuva e temperatura diários foram obtidos da Estação Meteorológica Convencional de Resende, Rio de Janeiro, disponibilizados pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Foi realizada uma análise de regressão linear simples para avaliar a dependência da série temporal da vegetação em função das séries diárias de chuva e de temperatura e a significância dos coeficientes de correlação. E também uma análise multivariada dos componentes principais. O resultado da regressão linear simples entre as variáveis índice de vegetação e meteorológicas (temperatura e chuva), foram significativas nos respectivos anos (p-value < 5%), exceto para a variável chuva no ano de 2015 que apresentou 0,06% para um p-value menor que 25%. Observando a tendência, em ambos os anos (2005 e 2015) foi verificado o aumento da vegetação na área de estudo (Z = 0,37 e 0,24). Quando quantificados os valores das respectivas classes de vegetação podese verificar que ocorreu uma redução de 40% da classe Dense vegetation em 2015. A dinâmica da vegetação da bacia do ribeirão Cachimbal é influenciada pelas variáveis climáticas chuva e temperatura, sendo a maior correlação na estação de primavera e verão.

Physical attributes of the river basin of Roncador river associated to the landscape change in the municipality of Magé, Rio de Janeiro-Brazil / Atributos físicos da bacia hidrográfica do rio Roncador associados a mudança da paisagem no município de Magé, Rio de Janeiro-Brasil

The objective of this study was to conduct a temporal analysis of biophysical attributes of the river basin of Rio Roncador, located in the municipality of Magé, Rio de Janeiro. SRTM data were used for the determination of the river basin morphometry and two images of the orbital platform Landsat5 TM sensor (01/28/1986 and 02/15/2010) applied the SEBAL algorithm to characterize the landscape dynamics. The results indicate that The river basin has a drainage area equivalent to 186.21 km2, perimeter 101.78 km, circularity index equal to 0.22, form factor 0.26 and compares index 2.09. These results indicate that the river basin is not prone to flooding, mainly due to its elongated form. It was possible to verify that in the interval of 24 years, degradation occurred in the region beyond the change in the coverage of the soil of the river basin. The results indicated a tendency of reduction in the areas of permanent preservation -13.4% of the river basin. It is concluded that anthropogenic actions were able to alter the surface cover of the soil and that, by the way, may have influenced the water dynamics of the river basin.

O objetivo deste estudo foi realizar uma análise temporal de atributos biofísicos da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Roncador, localizado no município de Magé, Rio de Janeiro. Utilizaram-se dados do SRTM para a determinação da morfometria da bacia hidrográfica e duas imagens da plataforma orbital Landsat5 sensor TM (28/01/1986 e 15/02/2010) aplicado o algoritmo SEBAL para caracterizar a dinâmica da paisagem nesse período. Os resultados indicam que a bacia hidrográfica possui uma área de drenagem equivalente a 186,21 km2, perímetro de 101,78 km, índice de circularidade igual a 0,22, fator forma de 0,26 e índice de compacidade de 2,09. Estes resultados indicam que a bacia hidrográfica não é propícia a enchentes, devido principalmente a sua forma alonga. Foi possível verificar que no intervalo de 24 anos ocorreu degradação na região além da mudança na cobertura do solo da bacia hidrográfica. Os resultados obtidos indicaram uma tendência de redução nas áreas de preservação permanente de -13,4% da bacia hidrográfica. Conclui-se que ações antropogênicas foram capazes de alterar a cobertura superficial do solo e que por sinal podem ter influenciado a dinâmica hídrica da bacia hidrográfica.

Resource Loss and Psychosocial Stress in the Aftermath of the 2008 Tennessee Valley Authority Coal Ash Spill.

The 2008 Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Kingston Fossil Plant impoundment failure resulted in one of most significant industrial accidents of its kind in U.S. history. Based on data from a 2011 household survey of 1,840 residents of Roane County where the spill occurred and nearby Anderson County (a comparison community), Tennessee, we examine disaster-related psychosocial stress as measured by the Impact of Event Scale. We frame our findings using the Conservation of Resources (COR) model. The strongest contributors to spill-related stress were resource loss and threat of loss, as well as increased perceptions of risk that were connected to experience with the spill; beliefs about economic and environmental impacts; concerns about health; and perceived social disruption. Regression analyses reveal that effects of the spill transcend county of residence. These findings reinforce the relevance of the COR model for understanding that these losses, as well as threat of loss, to objects, conditions, personal characteristics, and energy resources contribute to disaster-related stress.

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling.

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population's recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.

A Conceptual Model to Assess Stress-Associated Health Effects of Multiple Ecosystem Services Degraded by Disaster Events in the Gulf of Mexico and Elsewhere.

Few conceptual frameworks attempt to connect disaster-associated environmental injuries to impacts on ecosystem services (the benefits humans derive from nature) and thence to both psychological and physiological human health effects. To our knowledge, this study is one of the first, if not the first, to develop a detailed conceptual model of how degraded ecosystem services affect cumulative stress impacts on the health of individual humans and communities. Our comprehensive Disaster-Pressure State-Ecosystem Services-Response-Health (DPSERH) model demonstrates that oil spills, hurricanes, and other disasters can change key ecosystem components resulting in reductions in individual and multiple ecosystem services that support people's livelihoods, health, and way of life. Further, the model elucidates how damage to ecosystem services produces acute, chronic, and cumulative stress in humans which increases risk of adverse psychological and physiological health outcomes. While developed and initially applied within the context of the Gulf of Mexico, it should work equally well in other geographies and for many disasters that cause impairment of ecosystem services. Use of this new tool will improve planning for responses to future disasters and help society more fully account for the costs and benefits of potential management responses. The model also can be used to help direct investments in improving response capabilities of the public health community, biomedical researchers, and environmental scientists. Finally, the model illustrates why the broad range of potential human health effects of disasters should receive equal attention to that accorded environmental damages in assessing restoration and recovery costs and time frames.

Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on feeding methods and newborn growth at 1 month postpartum: results from the Fukushima Health Management Survey.

This study examined the effects of three disasters (the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011, followed by a tsunami and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident) on feeding methods and growth in infants born after the disasters. Using results from the Fukushima Health Management Survey, Soso District (the affected area where the damaged nuclear power plant is located) and Aizu District (a less-affected area located farthest from the plant) were compared. In this study, newborn and maternal background characteristics were examined, as well as feeding methods, and other factors for newborn growth at the first postpartum examination for 1706 newborns born after the disaster in the affected (n = 836) and less-affected (n = 870) areas. Postpartum examinations took place 1 month after birth. Feeding method trends were examined, and multivariate regression analyses were used to investigate effects on newborn mass gain. There were no significant differences in background characteristics among newborns in these areas. When birth dates were divided into four periods to assess trends, no significant change in the exclusive breastfeeding rate was found, while the exclusive formula-feeding rate was significantly different across time periods in the affected area (p = 0.02). Multivariate analyses revealed no significant independent associations of maternal depression and change in medical facilities (possible disaster effects) with other newborn growth factors in either area. No area differences in newborn growth at the first postpartum examination or in exclusive breastfeeding rates were found during any period. Exclusive formula-feeding rates varied across time periods in the affected, but not in the less-affected area. It is concluded that effective guidance to promote breast-feeding and prevent exclusive use of formula is important for women in post-disaster circumstances.

Toward a new definition of 'refugee': is the 1951 convention out of date?

Definitions, by necessity, may change or need to be changed to accommodate situations that arise. The United Nations recognized that the emergence of new refugee situations required changes in the Convention. These changes were codified in the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees. The issue of what constitutes a 'refugee' has been changing over time. As new classifications of refugees develop, there needs to be changes in the definition of what is a refugee. There has been a growing consensus in the international arena to recognize those displaced by environmental causes. We need to take steps to develop an inclusive definition of refugee that includes those displaced by environmental causes.